Modeling Future Land Cover Dynamics and Surface Thermal Variability

Abstract

Understanding long-term land use and land cover (LULC) transitions is fundamental for evaluating environmental resilience, ecological integrity, and the thermal consequences of anthropogenic landscape modification. This study presents a geospatial assessment of historical and future LULC evolution across Zonguldak Province, Türkiye, covering the period from 2000 to 2040, while simultaneously examining its influence on land surface temperature (LST) using an integrated Cellular Automata–Artificial Neural Network (CA–ANN) simulation framework. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery and spatial driving factors were employed to characterize landscape transformation and predict future land-use configurations for 2030 and 2040. The results indicate a persistent expansion of urbanized and sparsely vegetated surfaces throughout the analysis period. Urban land is projected to increase from 3.55% in 2000 to approximately 14.25% by 2040, while bare land is expected to rise from 11.95% to nearly 21.45%. In contrast, forested landscapes, agricultural vegetation, and surface water bodies exhibit gradual reductions in spatial extent. Thermal pattern analysis demonstrates that impervious and exposed land surfaces consistently record the highest LST values, whereas densely vegetated ecosystems and aquatic environments function as effective thermal regulators by maintaining comparatively lower surface temperatures. The CA–ANN model successfully reproduced historical land conversion processes and generated realistic future development scenarios, revealing nonlinear interactions between land transformation and surface thermal characteristics. The projected decline of natural vegetation together with the continuous expansion of built-up areas is expected to intensify regional thermal conditions and increase landscape-level environmental vulnerability. These findings demonstrate that integrating remote sensing observations with spatially explicit predictive modeling provides a robust framework for monitoring environmental change, evaluating future thermal risks, and supporting evidence-based territorial planning. The proposed methodology contributes practical scientific guidance for sustainable urban development, ecosystem conservation, and climate-adaptive land management strategies in Zonguldak Province.