Climate-Sensitive Modeling of Radon Risk in Shkoder, Albania: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach
Abstract views: 0
/ 
PDF downloads: 0
Keywords:
Radon, Bayesian Modeling, Shkoder, Climate Projections, Environmental Health, Geogenic RiskAbstract
This study presents a climate-integrated probabilistic framework for assessing radon exposure
risks in northern Albania using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Drawing from radon survey data and
ERA5-Land climate reanalysis spanning 1974 to 2023, we explore how regional temperature, precipitation,
and soil moisture variability influence radon emissions. Under high-emissions climate projections (SSP5
8.5), the probability of radon concentrations exceeding 300 Bq/m³ is expected to increase by approximately
28% by mid-century, driven primarily by declining precipitation and rising temperatures. These findings
provide evidence to support targeted radon mitigation strategies in climate-vulnerable zones.
Downloads
References
Handbook on Indoor Radon, World Health Organization Geneva. (2009).
S. Dogjani, et al. “Indoor radon concentration in Shkodra,” Balkan Geophysical Society., vol. 20, 2013
M. Kuqali et al., A preliminary study of indoor radon levels at historical area of Shkodra city. European Physical Journal Special Topics, Berlin, Germany: Springer, 2025, vol. 61.
Muñoz Sabater, J. (2019): ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). DOI: 10.24381/cds.e2161bac (2002) The IEEE
website. [Online]. Available: http://www.ieee.org/
Sivia DS, Skilling J. Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial (Second Edition). Oxford University Press. 2006. [Google Scholar]
“Fornalski KW, Parzych G, Pylak M, Satuła D, Dobrzyński L. Application of Bayesian reasoning and the maximum entropy method to some reconstruction problems. Acta Physica Polonica A. 2010;117(6):892–899
